Thank you, Mr. Speaker. If I have learned one thing in this job, it's that persistence often gets you results. Considering that one third of NWT residents are at high risk of COVID-19, does the Minister have any projections of, if COVID-19 were to spread across our population, how many people would be hospitalized and/or die? Thank you, Mr. Speaker.
Thank you, Member for Yellowknife North. I'm guessing the Minister of Health and Social Services.
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. Using the data from the four most recent influenza seasons, there were two years with no influenza deaths and two years with a single influenza death each year in a row. The past four years, we have also had between 14 and 24 influenza-related hospitalizations and between two and seven ICU admissions. It is important to note that approximately 21 percent of the population receives the influenza vaccine, with greater than 50 percent coverage among those 65 years of age and older, who are typically at greater risk for severe disease.
In addition, antivirals for flu treatment are often effective. We do not have a similar treatment for COVID-19 at this time. General estimates are that both 10 percent of unvaccinated adults and 20 percent of unvaccinated children acquire influenza each season. The case fatality rate of influenza in adults is about one in 1,000, resulting in about 3,500 deaths in Canada each year. Thank you, Mr. Speaker.
That was some very helpful influenza data, and I will re-read the Hansard to try to understand it after. Perhaps it could be posted publicly. However, specifically, I'm not just looking for data on influenza; I'm looking for a projection of COVID-19 community spread across our population and the number of hospitalizations or deaths that could result from that.
COVID-19 is a new virus to everybody around the globe. Everyone is susceptible because none of us has had a chance to build our immune system up to it. Without a vaccine and without public health measures to reduce exposure, there is a high probability that the vast majority of NWT residents could acquire COVID-19 in the coming months and years. However, with public health measures that we have in place, it's unlikely that all of the NWT's population will get COVID at the same time or in the same season. That is why it's so important that we stay the course and follow the public health advice and orders that are in place so that we can continue to contain the spread of COVID-19 and keep the curve flat.
The NWT has not experienced any community transmission, so we don't have the data to be able to model how COVID-19 might behave in the Northwest Territories if we did have community transmission, so our modelling efforts are being informed by the experience of places where community transmission has occurred, including those that are similar to the Northwest Territories, like northern regions in other provinces. This will help us get a more realistic idea of how the outbreak might spread.
What we know from other regions that are affected is approximately 80 percent of infections are mild enough to be managed at home; it's about 15 percent who are hospitalized; 5 percent require ICU; and approximately 1 percent die. In the Northwest Territories, this could translate to 450 deaths from COVID-19, so, in order to delay the spread of COVID-19 as much as possible, we put public health measures in place early, before there was any evidence of community transmission, and this has helped us contain the spread of the virus.
The idea of 450 residents across our very small population dying, I think, is truly a tragic figure that we want to avoid at all costs, and I'm happy to hear that we do not expect, given our public health measures, for everyone to obtain COVID at the same time.
My other question is: one of the main things we have been trying to do is to break the wave, to prevent a surge in our healthcare system. Do we have any current projections or idea of, if we get to that community spread where there are potentially hundreds of people dying, whether other deaths will be caused due to the surge on the healthcare system?
From the beginning of the pandemic, we have encouraged people to continue to seek care for their healthcare needs. It's important that we continue to support the healthcare and wellness of our population, including primary preventative care. We have made significant advances in virtual care to enable people to receive care closer to home. I will get back to the Member with the rest of this question.
Thank you, Minister. Oral questions. Member for Yellowknife North.
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. I guess my request to the Minister is: I think if people hear that there are potentially 450 deaths, that statistic has numerous qualifiers and a bunch of underlying assumptions built into it. When we hear that 5 percent of people get COVID and end up in the intensive care unit, once again, there are a number of qualifiers, and that's a worst-case scenario based on all of the qualifiers you said. My request to the Minister: could we publish some sort of report or data or put this out with all of the information out? Thank you, Mr. Speaker.
Thank you, Member for Yellowknife North. Minister of Health and Social Services.
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. All the information we provided is good information, and it allows the people in the Northwest Territories to see how serious this pandemic is in comparison to the flu. Our department has good data and has the figures, and we would be able to provide that data publicly. Thank you, Mr. Speaker.
Thank you, Minister. Oral questions. Member for Yellowknife Centre.
